Blast from the past Old Lionel prices

I think josef is on to something. In sum, pricing is complicated:

First off, "toy trains" are, and to some extent always have been, a luxury item. There's a reason why us old geezers have fond memories of that brand new around-the-tree layout -- it was a bit of holiday (or birthday) extravagance, rather than a commodity. So it's no real surprise that those "cheap" trains (in absolute dollars) turn out to be rather expensive, when adjusted for inflation.

Second, base inflation is of course a real thing, and adjusting for general inflation is one time-tested and fairly straightforward method of attempting to compare apples to apples, and not an Apple watch. However, this only works accurately if the items being compared are in fact comparable. Milk and bread, for instance, are pretty much the same commodities through the decades. However, even top of the line PW rolling stock (as much as I have enjoyed it, then and now) can't just be put side by side with modern gear, at least without significant adjustments and footnoting. Modern rolling stock has *vastly* improved features and capabilities (and yes, compromises and vulnerabilities) when compared to the older gear. So, compare the sticker prices at your peril . . .

Finally, there's the whole commercial and manufacturing dynamics, the neo-Darwinian economic "survival of the fittest", and all the ongoing revolutions in how business and commerce gets done. Some of those dynamics (off-shoring production, gaining market share by lowering prices, etc.) tends to press pricing downward, while others (supply chain disruptions, loss of competition through bankruptcy, etc.) tend to push prices up. Yes, greed is always a lurking factor, often only kept in check by the market's unwillingness to write a blank check or willingness to consider less outrageously-priced alternatives.

The bottom line for me is that the ultimate decision for the purchase of any luxury item will almost always be made as a negotiation between you, your wallet, your appetites, and the competing demands for your limited resources at that time. Any one factor such as price, even when "adjusted for inflation", is only one data point in a complicated stew of factors.

Now, let me get back to playing with my (mostly PW and cheap!) toy trains . . . 

Trail drive? Cattle? 1878? What are you talking about? Where's the trains??  Which Lionel catalog are you referring to??

You hit the nail on the head. (are you sure you only put one toe in the water? 2 paragraphs from one toe?)

 

Now we are leaving the area of micro-economics into philosophy.

The truth is, none us can afford to spend money on trains, not a penny. They offer no practical value at all, they don't feed you, they don't cloth you and they don't shelter you. My advice is: DON"T buy trains! Save all your money for the inevitable nursing home care you will need. 



Problem solved

Here is another comparison scale steam engines to scale steam engines. In the 2001 Lionel catalog is the USRA 2-6-6-2 O-54 turn radius for $1399 in 2001 dollars. In 2024 dollars the $1399 is the equivalent to $2484.

In the Lionel 2024 volume 2 catalog, the USRA 4-8-2 Mountains with a O-54 turn radius cost $1599.

So Lionel's full scale steam engines cost about $800 less than what they should if you take into account inflation. 

As I mentioned earlier, we can make the numbers tell whatever story we‘re attempting to convey. But before readers will buy into your huge “leap-of-faith” conclusions, you’ve gotta stop thinking one-dimensionally.

For example, your sole reliance on the inflation calculator doesn’t take into account that Lionel factory costs have changed over the decades. Moving manufacturing to China supposedly lowered their costs… but over time, those manufacturing and tooling costs have increased.

And for another example, even if all supply-chain costs remained on par, in most cases consumer wages tend to lag behind costs of goods and services — thereby making consumers feel the pinch that toy trains are less affordable. I’m not saying this to change your mind, because that’s not gonna happen. But likewise, few — if any — of us will be convinced by your overly simplistic view of the numbers either. It is what it is.

There is no leap of faith here. Its numbers, the simple math of comparing prices. That's it. There is no wishful thinking or magic.  As for the cost factors that you listed, they have already been accounted for in the CPI calculator. In any case, as I have shown, the prices for some of Lionel's products have actually dropped taking inflation into account since Lionel's move overseas. I am not really sure what conclusion you are reaching for here.