State of the Hobby, 2020

One thing seems to be unsaid... what is the effect of advancing ago on the hobby from a dollars and cents viewpoint. It should be fairly easy for management consultants to determine the direction in which the hobby is headed and to come up with some reasonable $$$ estimates. I also expect that they can determine other useful information that would assist vendors in their planning.

A lot has been said that are positive or negative factors and should be able to be modeled. Based upon the behavior of the vendors which seems to be all over the place, I have to wonder if they have done their homework. They certainly do not appear to be consistent in their actions.

With the new catalog just 2 weeks away from yesterday, there's been very little to talk about -- no Lionel "previews" that I can recall seeing.  And it will be interesting to see if Lionel ships printed copies of the catalog to dealers in advance of 1/20.  They did that for the last two or three catalogs, and enterprising young souls seeking their 15 seconds of YouTube fame posted videos of themselves paging through the catalog before the official release date. 

Regarding the catalog... I forgot there IS one thing I'd be curious to see if Lionel offers, and that is the remaining cars of their Freedom Train.  Personally, I'm not a big fan of entire trains that take YEARS to be delivered -- especially now that the overseas factory landscape is so volatile.  Heck, Lionel is having enough trouble getting basic paint colors correct at all -- let alone trying to match paint colors across multiple factories who assemble trains over several years.  Stratospheric pricing notwithstanding, I'd much prefer to see importers offer an entire train in one catalog, like Lionel just did with its O-Gauge PreWar Scale State Set.  Beautiful job too.  But as we speak, I wanna say Lionel's Freedom Train has taken a 2+ year hiatus from the catalog.  And Lionel STILL hasn't offered an observation car (among others).  So right now, peeps with Lionel's Freedom Train have gone at least 2 years w/o a complete train.  Not my idea of having "fun" with trains that we purchase.  Atlas-O took this approach to extremes with its California Zephyr offering... taking over 7 years to deliver the complete train.  And then what did they do for those of us who waited out those 7+ years to build a full train?  They made a "special" offering of the complete train available!!!  Nice way to thank those who stuck by them buying cars one or two per year for all that time.  Gotta wonder some days.... 

The price of model trains is ridiculously high today. No matter how you cut it they are toys. So many variables come into play. The least of which is not greed. If the market will bear it the price will continue to rise. There is no cheap hobby anymore. Here are a few examples that we have to endure up here. We own a fully rigged tournament bass boat,(2012 Ranger Comanche Z521c), our price for this boat was $64,000.00 back then. Replacement cost today is approximately $125,000.00. Hell of a jump. That does include the 30% difference in our dollars. A fully jammed Ford Lariat 4x4 pickup is $67,000.00+ sticker price. The average home price in the city of Ottawa $441,800.00 in November,2019. Not a very large home either. I guess it all depends on what you want to spend your money on. Most of the people after a certain age that I know have their houses paid off, money in the bank and no real debt to speak of and are able to indulge in hobbies and still live quite comfortably whether both spouses have pensions from their employers or have created their own retirement savings funds. Our kids stay at home longer now because most seem to work two part time jobs because there isn't enough full time jobs anymore. They no longer look at staying in one place for 30yrs. or longer. They go where the money is. Again this has more to do with company greed by eliminating full time positions in the last 5-10 yrs to create a better return for stockholders. There are more small businesses today than ever due to business and personal write offs. Let's face it we have become lazy and would rather pay someone else to do it. The Baby Boomer generation in North America has created and generated more money than any generation in any given time. Manufacturers and marketing experts have known this for many , many years. Hence the cost of a Legacy engine being $500.00+ today. We will piss and moan but we will still buy. mainly because it is a want, not a need. We have created our own demons.

Gary.

I have a feeling the new catalog will definitely get some attention from outside our hobby.  There may be some items in there that will cross the train hobby into other genres.  There may be some items that will force me to do something I vowed not to do and that is pre-order.  I am surprised by the lack of hype considering the release is scheduled less than 2 weeks from now.  Once release there will be some things to talk about for sure.

The hobby is strong but not where it needs to be.  The younger folks.  Although I will say we sold a lot of Lionel sets at the shop.  Not so may MTH sets.  The WiFi is scaring parents IMO and the Lionel remote puts them at ease even though in many cases the MTH sets are a better value.  I think MTH might have jumped the gun eliminating it's simple remote in sets.

I also think that it is the job of the current hobbyist to keep it going.  I do what I can to promote the hobby.

The pre-order, if it happens, will be low end without a large risk.  I won't pre-order any high end stuff again until they get their ducks in a row.

There’s only one thing I want to see in this catalog and that is MILK