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Post by Sir James on Jan 5, 2020 16:01:03 GMT
I would hope that our hobby survives. Lionel quality is so bad that a newcomer would give up quickly. MTH RTR has become a price barrier without an in the box controller. My 6 grandsons don't even ask to see the trains run. I love em, you love em, but who knows. I'm sure that todays high cost of trains will also deter some. Here's to the future I hope it's a good one.
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Post by Yellowstone Special on Jan 5, 2020 18:33:25 GMT
I always get a kick out of the responses to this topic whenever it comes up. The topic has surfaced every now and then in the 3 forums I've been on over the past 7 years. But it's always fun to read how O-scalers respond to it.
I would agree that the O scale portion of the model railroading hobby appears to be holding its own for now and shows no signs of going completely away. However, there have been some notable, negative issues in it over the past 20 years or so, some stated by previous posters, that are of concern.
1. The disappearance of K-Line and its absorption into Lionel
2. The entire disappearance of Weaver
3. The decline of Atlas and while still with us, not being what it used to be.
4. Williams's absorption into Bachmann, and its continual waning in the O scale market.
5. Lionel's continuous quality control problems, which have lasted for several years now and are still an issue
6. Lionel's and MTH's continuous upward spiral of pricing
I'm sure there are more, but these seem to stand out in my mind. 65 years ago back in 1955, when Lionel was at its pinnacle, the population of the U.S. was 166 million. Today it's estimated to have just passed 330 million, or an increase of 92% since 1955, or almost double. In 1955, it seemed that almost every kid on the block had some kind of Lionel train set. Fast forward to today and does the average boy have a train set? Uh, no. Wouldn't it have been awesome if interest in trains had not declined? Think of where the hobby (O-scale) would be today and how much different the product selection, quality, and pricing would be. To me, it's fun to speculate sometimes, but of course this isn't what happened.
Anyway, I guess what I'm getting at is that to us, our O-scale hobby SEEMS to be alive and well for now, but because of guys like us, who help to keep it alive. And yes, as previously stated by another poster, Lionel does OK with its ready-to-run starter sets (Lion Chief) and the Polar Express sets. However, most of these sets in the long run, turn out to be nothing more than a temporary interest or a train for going around the Christmas tree.
This was stated awhile back on another forum, but I've become so disgusted from reading about Lionel's continuous quality control problems and sky-high pricing, that I've been concentrating on their product lines from about 2005 to 2008. I get them NIB or in like-new condition and have not had any problems whatsoever. Everything I have, has worked out of the box the way it's supposed to. So even though I'm a Lionel guy (with only one MTH engine) and like Lionel's simple TMCC/Legacy command control, I'll probably never be buying any current new Lionel, because I'm happy with what I have.
So, I wonder where the O-scale section of the hobby will go from here?
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Post by laz57 on Jan 5, 2020 19:28:31 GMT
Everything YUZ GUYZ has stated I agree 100%. For our hobby to grow we need new blood in it. Not just youngsters but the people in there 20s-30s. You go to YORK and the majority of the people there are us oldsters. Get the 20+ people in it and they will bring their kids along with relatives.
At Christmas we had a few neighbors with their kids over to run trains. Kids and parents had a ball running all my remotes. Parents couldn’t get over how cool it was and all the different things that you could buy for your layout. But we’re shocked at the prices of things that were being run and everything on the layout. I had said you buy a little at a time and this took 20+ years to accumulate. The kids ranged between 5-9 year olds and ran LionChief + engines on the big layout with their parents. They loved working the remotes while the parents were using the Cab2 and the DCS remotes. Everyone enjoyed the trains and hopefully I made an impression on them. I gave an invite to them if they wanted to run again they would be welcomed back to do so anytime.
Hopefully prices won’t keep climbing and quality improves? We shall see, stay tuned...
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Post by josef on Jan 5, 2020 20:30:03 GMT
Everything YUZ GUYZ has stated I agree 100%. For our hobby to grow we need new blood in it. Not just youngsters but the people in there 20s-30s. You go to YORK and the majority of the people there are us oldsters. Get the 20+ people in it and they will bring their kids along with relatives.
At Christmas we had a few neighbors with their kids over to run trains. Kids and parents had a ball running all my remotes. Parents couldn’t get over how cool it was and all the different things that you could buy for your layout. But we’re shocked at the prices of things that were being run and everything on the layout. I had said you buy a little at a time and this took 20+ years to accumulate. The kids ranged between 5-9 year olds and ran LionChief + engines on the big layout with their parents. They loved working the remotes while the parents were using the Cab2 and the DCS remotes. Everyone enjoyed the trains and hopefully I made an impression on them. I gave an invite to them if they wanted to run again they would be welcomed back to do so anytime.
Hopefully prices won’t keep climbing and quality improves? We shall see, stay tuned... I agree, its the sticker shock for a ready to run set at a reasonable affordable price for the medium family. I've had same when youngsters come over and dad and kids enjoy running the trains. When asked if a ready to run set with and engine, couple cars, tracks, and either conventional or a remote system could be bought for 100.00 or less, are unaware, and say its a hobby they can't afford. If only someone like Menards would step in and up to produce beginners set say conventional, then were it can be upgraded with a kit for command control later by the buyers. This would benefit not only all of us, but benefit the manufacturers with future sales and upgrading eventually to their higher end products.
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Post by laz57 on Jan 5, 2020 21:37:19 GMT
Everything YUZ GUYZ has stated I agree 100%. For our hobby to grow we need new blood in it. Not just youngsters but the people in there 20s-30s. You go to YORK and the majority of the people there are us oldsters. Get the 20+ people in it and they will bring their kids along with relatives.
At Christmas we had a few neighbors with their kids over to run trains. Kids and parents had a ball running all my remotes. Parents couldn’t get over how cool it was and all the different things that you could buy for your layout. But we’re shocked at the prices of things that were being run and everything on the layout. I had said you buy a little at a time and this took 20+ years to accumulate. The kids ranged between 5-9 year olds and ran LionChief + engines on the big layout with their parents. They loved working the remotes while the parents were using the Cab2 and the DCS remotes. Everyone enjoyed the trains and hopefully I made an impression on them. I gave an invite to them if they wanted to run again they would be welcomed back to do so anytime.
Hopefully prices won’t keep climbing and quality improves? We shall see, stay tuned... I agree, its the sticker shock for a ready to run set at a reasonable affordable price for the medium family. I've had same when youngsters come over and dad and kids enjoy running the trains. When asked if a ready to run set with and engine, couple cars, tracks, and either conventional or a remote system could be bought for 100.00 or less, are unaware, and say its a hobby they can't afford. If only someone like Menards would step in and up to produce beginners set say conventional, then were it can be upgraded with a kit for command control later by the buyers. This would benefit not only all of us, but benefit the manufacturers with future sales and upgrading eventually to their higher end products.
JOESF, That is a great idea about the starter set that could be upgraded for command control. Lionel had done this with a Maersk Intermodal set, where you could go from conventional to command by switching out the boards. But that set was a high end set by Lionel. But a starter set to do the same,I like that.
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Post by rockymountaineer on Jan 6, 2020 2:58:56 GMT
Many of us here have been around the hobby for decades. So I think we bring a pretty good perspective to the current "state of the hobby". Already a lot of good posts here, so let me just comment on things from a slightly different angle. In many ways, Brian's opening comment is very appropriate... i.e., "the best of times... the worst of times". In the case of the latter, there's no doubt that those of us who are big-time, hi-rail enthusiasts have some serious concerns, given some of the less-than-ideal trends we've observed in recent years. Previous posters have already commented on Lionel's worsening QA issues, the disappearance of Weaver, and disappointing lack of consistency with respect to Atlas-O delivery schedules. While I was a staunch advocate of Atlas-O in their early heydays, the company's recent delivery problems has dropped them off my radar screen for all practical purposes. And I wonder how much longer Atlas will even service the O-Gauge market. It took them SO LONG to deliver their latest F3/F7 diesels -- a very basic product per se -- peeps forgot they even pre-ordered them. And in many cases, dealers were left holding inventory that was delivered nearly 3 years late. So now they're trying to blow them out. I mean.... seriously, can you BLAME buyers for losing interest in products which take THAT long to be delivered? After a certain point, we lose interest, move onward, and spend our money elsewhere. No business model can thrive in that environment.  As for Lionel's QA issues, I'll just cut to the chase. They have a new catalog scheduled for release in 2 weeks: Jan 20th. And I'm not even all that excited about what might be in it. Now THAT's saying something, because the anticipation of a new Lionel catalog was always an event that turned grown men into boys. But right now, I'm just not feeling it. I have lost complete interest in pre-ordering Lionel products. And I'm just happy the larger dealers STILL have the guts to order "extra" product beyond their firm customer pre-orders. Because without those dealers, those of us who now wanna see stuff BEFORE we commit to buy it would be out of luck. Although BTO intentions might have been all well and good, the execution of Lionel's version of this business model has been faltering for nearly 3 years now. But I expect nothing will really change until Lionel sees a DRASTIC reduction in BTO pre-order volumes. So until that happens, BTO with all is ugly warts is what it is. BTW, the only things that "might" get a second look from me in Lionel's new catalog are the number of exclusive "special-run" offerings by some dealers. Why? Because those might be the products that folks have more incentive to pre-order, because of the sheer limited number that might be produced. It's a delicate balance, but that seems to be where BTO is heading these days -- especially in light of Lionel's recent faux pas. Lionel isn't stupid, and they're probably well aware increasing numbers of folks aren't pre-ordering blindly anymore. So these special-runs are a way to mitigate that trend. Switching gears now to a much more positive note... i.e., "the best of times". Let's do something completely different and turn to TW Trainworx, a company that is literally going gang-busters trying to meet the market demand to have custom layouts built and delivered to private indivudals. Decades ago, Dunham Studios pretty much pioneered the concept -- first with commercial layouts like Citibank Station in NYC around Christmastime, and then later offering those same services to private individuals. I was fortunate enough to commission Dunham Studios a couple of years ago to produce my current layout, and it was the right decision for me... as life situations were making it exceedingly challenging for me to spend sufficient time bringing my own model railroad endeavors to completion. Little did I realize so many other folks were in the same boat!!!  While Dunham Studios typically works on ONE big residential product per year -- or sometimes TWO projects if they're BOTH small enough -- TW Trainworx has turned the entire custom-build layout market upside-down and inside-out. Headquartered in Dallas, TX... TW Trainworx seems to be pumping out upwards of 3 or 4 big layouts every 3 to 6 months these days. It's almost dizzying to imagine the pace at which the folks at TW Trainworx are achieving this feat. Many of us know Lionel's former product and engineering director Mike Reagan now works at TW Trainworx, so the company now has layouts coming out of two production facilities: one in Texas and the other in North Carolina. TW Trainworx is also offering a line of high-end (and very expensive) model structures -- including bridges and city stations that are nothing short of jaw-dropping. I only mention this, because it's a PERFECT example of Brian's reference to "the best of times". Having a custom layout built may not be for everyone, but it is indeed an amazing alternative that some folks never thought could be possible. Or if they did, they didn't want to wait several years to see their dream-layout see the light of day. I also place the offerings of Harry Heike in this "best of times" category as well. It's terrific that we have access to these wonderful offerings by talented artisans. Yes... they do come with a price tag that may not fit everyone's budget. But none of these artisans seem to be hurting for work at this point either. So they're fulfilling bona-fide needs in the marketplace. So I guess our hobby is indeed experiencing "the best of times" as well as a smidgen of trends that also represents "the worst of times". |
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Post by JDaddy on Jan 6, 2020 15:42:23 GMT
I cannot surmise if the Hobby is going through its best of times or worst of times... just that the times are a changing:
I have been in the hobby for 40 years and here are the monumental changes that I have noticed:
1) Ebay has killed the local train shows. Detroit will only have one or two major meets a year. Sad to see the meets go, but it is nice sitting in my family room looking through and bidding on items for sale I would never get a chance to even see at the swap meet. I also can keep record of an items market value and not worry about over paying for an item.
2) You tube has given us the ability to see videos of layouts I would never had a chance to see when I was young. A lot of modelers didn't have the time or a chance to show their layouts. Now you can see, hear, and talked to other layout owners on line.
3) You tube has also been great for the hobby in how to do videos... never again am I stuck on a weathering technique, or air brush trick or how to install / repair an item.
4) Model Railroad Clubs, - if it was not for the internet and forums, I would not have found local friends and a great club we are in. Also, being able to share our get togethers with others.
5) New Products have seem to multiply. No longer do I need to send a letter out requesting manufactures products to hear that they are no longer in business or do not make certain products anymore. At a touch of a finger I have everything available to me. Like one big Walthers catalog
6) Enter China... new products, new unique tooling, fraction of the cost, never have I seen so many products available to consumers. Quality and paint colors remain a challenge, but once over the hurdle...
7) Everything is integrated with electronics and the web, and our phones... a one last ditch effort to get the youth involved? Is this a good Idea? not sure yet. But the hobby needs for standardization in its control electronics... and now.
8) Computer games and virtual reality. Eventually this will reduce the amount of full size layouts built and the number of people in the hobby. Hobbyist will always be involved with trains, but how they model and interact is going to change.
9) 3-D CAD and printers. Only a few years away, most us with some technical skills will be able to custom make our own locomotives and cars. Making money on model trains is going to be very difficult for the big box manufactures.
10) New blood? Well that's up to the interest of people and how its shared with new comers. The creativity and interest is always there, its just how we create it and enjoy it in a 3-D world. As real estate cost begins to sore, people have less and less room to dedicate an empire. That empire may diminish or reduce in size and scale.
11) Time. I know I have dedicated more time in playing online games with my son and daughters and their friends which takes time away from modeling and running trains, but that is just a balance of interest. I definitely have sold off all my old cars and that ship has sailed in my life right now. Talk about expensive. Trains are a drop in the bucket.
Its important though, that we do share our interest and skills with the younger folk. If the one out of 100 catches on... then we have succeeded. 
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2020 16:09:31 GMT
Definitely good points everyone.
John your club would be a good reading for this thread ....
Do you see youth wanting to join your club? Do you see new technologies used in the layouts as soon as they are available? Do you think once the baby boomers are gone the hobby will fade out?
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Post by JDaddy on Jan 6, 2020 16:49:52 GMT
Definitely good points everyone. John your club would be a good reading for this thread .... Do you see youth wanting to join your club? Do you see new technologies used in the layouts as soon as they are available? Do you think once the baby boomers are gone the hobby will fade out? Our club designates you have a home and a build layout and host to run trains on a layout. So not many people have achieved that under 30. So I try to invite as many guest regardless of age to my open house. And there are a handful that do show, young kids, and older, with their dates too. But I have noted in our sister club Glancy's modular layout that sets up at shows, there are some younger guys that bring trains and run newer products on the layout as well. They seem to be in that between stage... college, getting married, owning a home, kids, before the layout is made. Our club grew from 8 in 2007 to over 26 with many more wanting to join in 2019. We just can host everyone in some of our members basements.
LOTS of new technologies. Bob host every year at our Christmas party and had the DCS Wifi system going with a walk up Ipad last month. Very cool. Legacy sensor tracks, etc...everyone gets to experiment with it. New LED kits in passenger cars from Royz Trainz, Roy was there too. Questions are answered by the group how to upgrade ERR boards, DCS update kits and Legacy compatibility, wiring details, Even the Mill House turntable and transfer table was installed by one or more of our members. Very cool to operate and see first hand.
Baby boomers are a spike in the population at that time with many who had train sets growing up. There will never be as many as there was in this hobby, but it will survive.
I always talk to Tom at my LHS... he is the last surviving hobby shop in the metro area for MTH and Lionel trains. This year was record year and he sold out of all of his new engines within weeks of getting them in.
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Post by Country Joe on Jan 6, 2020 16:50:57 GMT
I think it's a mixed bag, both best and worst for the hobby.
On the up side, I wouldn't have dreamed that I could have a layout like I have now. Wireless remote control, speed control, sound and the variety of models offered is incredible. There are scale size trains, traditional size trains, brand new tinplate trains with modern electronics, buildings, scenery items, details, and so much more that wasn't available 30 or more years ago. Building a layout that looks and runs great is within reach of anyone. I would say that it is the best of times in this sense.
On the down side, when I attend shows most of the hobbyists are old men. There are some young families that take their kids to see the trains and some younger hobbyists but they are the exception. Trains don't mean the same thing to those younger than us. When we were young Lionel trains, or to a lesser degree American Flyer, were the high tech toy to have. Almost every boy, and some girls, wanted a Lionel train. Railroads were big business. Many of us had family and/or friends that worked for the railroads. Our trains were the most exciting toys available at the time. As we old-timers die off we won't be replaced in the same numbers, especially in 3 rail O gauge, so while it won't go away any time soon the hobby will shrink in the not too distant future.
I think we should enjoy our trains while we can. For us it's the best of times.
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Post by josef on Jan 6, 2020 18:06:41 GMT
7) But the hobby needs for standardization in its control electronics... and now.
Agree 110%, also electronics that can be replaced by users. Odd that we don't have NMRA standardization and guidelines for manufacturers as "N" and "HO" have?
No one has mentioned this, but personally I believe any item cataloged should be available to the consumer within 6 months or less or will not appear in catalogs. This is the most frustrating thing, I forgot half the things I had pre-ordered and 1 item was 2 years and completely forgot and didn't need anymore but bought it anyway so dealer wouldn't be holding it.
Overall, I enjoy what I have. Do I really need anything new or more of to enjoy? No, not really. Will I purchase any new items in the future? Yes, if the quality and expectations are there. But no more BTO or pre-orders.
My one weakness, is Andres kits.
Many great comments here.
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Post by rockymountaineer on Jan 6, 2020 21:04:58 GMT
.... Overall, I enjoy what I have. Do I really need anything new or more of to enjoy? No, not really. Will I purchase any new items in the future? Yes, if the quality and expectations are there. But no more BTO or pre-orders. ....
I guess that's why I'm viewing the upcoming release of Lionel's new catalog as somewhat of a ho-hum event. And if I'm reading the online vibes right, it feels like other folks are thinking the same way too. It's tough to ignore all the nonsense that's occurred in recent years and just throw more caution to the wind. With trust and confidence at an all-time low with Lionel BTO products, it's much more prudent to observe... wait for products to arrive... then go shopping when we know what we're getting. As you so accurately noted, it's not like any of us NEEDS new trains these days. 
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2020 21:28:24 GMT
We've decided to do the same. Pre ordered a B&O EM-1, NS Business Train, U.P. 4141 , U.P. 9098 and a B&O caboose from 2019 Volume #2. That will be it for BTO. Time to play the wait and see game. There are only have a few other locomotives that we would like to have anyway. Hopefully the QC will change for the better.
Gary.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2020 2:23:25 GMT
Wonder what color will the business train be?
Isn’t it ridiculous to even entertain such a question, much less have it be serious?
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Post by dennym57 on Jan 7, 2020 15:30:07 GMT
This is a very interesting thread. Everybody has made good points which I don't have anything to add. I did see a mention of Menards making starter sets. I have seen HO sets, but nothing in O. I can tell from working at I Love Toy Trains. Families come in and look around kids are begging for the parents to buy a train until they see the price.
I think it's more of the childs attention span. They spend the money only to eventually have it sit in the closet. You can tell which children have 'the bug' just by the questions they ask.
One boy had saved his money to buy an engine. His grandmother bought him there and he meticulously picked out what he wanted. To me that is the future of the hobby. Maybe some will come around when they are older. My return to the hobby started when I had my PW 2037 restored.
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