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Post by harborbelt70 on Dec 31, 2020 16:44:33 GMT
Even if I had unlimited/much greater space, which I don't and don't expect to have, I'd still be limiting what I add to what I've already got. On the other hand, there is no shortage of products out there - I've just tracked down some Lionel signals that will fit with what I have and it didn't take an age to track them down or cost much. So overall I rate the current state of the 3rail O scale hobby OK by me, whether or not MTH stays on the scene.
That's no doubt a shortsighted view as the net reduction in the size of the hobby's customer base is clear to me and doesn't exactly bode well for the future. How manufacturers adjust to cope with this is a big question that I don't have the business background to answer. I suppose I am glad none of them have gone under just because of the pandemic.
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Post by ptc on Dec 31, 2020 17:59:29 GMT
"How manufacturers adjust to cope with this is a big question that I don't have the business background to answer. I suppose I am glad none of them have gone under just because of the pandemic."
Markets always adjust to the current market conditions. Successful suppliers are able to read the tea leaves well and will survive. Those who don't, the market will take care of their situation. No need to take the Rolaids out of their containers.
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ben
New Member
Posts: 27
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Post by ben on Dec 31, 2020 21:51:40 GMT
I think everyone is has taken a realistic perspective on the direction of the hobby. I am looking at the good, bad, ugly
Good: Even with the shifting demographic, and market contraction, I don’t believe this hobby is dying. True there has been some over production during the recent boom, so we are going through a market correction.
from what I see, there are relatively young people with internet channels which are popular with the next generation. Also see plenty of kids at train shows. I believe this hobby will continue in a more sustainable form.
From a vendor standpoint I believe Atlas O continue to produce outstanding products, however they will be few and far between. Their HO products are still the bread and butter. I will not waste time speculating on MTH, it’s just wait and see is all we can do. If MTH unfortunately dissolves, that this might allow a company like 3rd Rail to expand market share. I know their products are for a very niche market., so it might be apples oranges.
Bad: I am really worried about what’s going on at Lionel. The quality control issues are not a new problem, however with no large competitor, they will have even less incentive to correct this issue. This problem is compounded by the understaffed service department. Combine the BTO scheme, defects, wrong paints, and the hassles of retailers to accept returns is a recipe for disaster. I really hope for the sake of the hobby and ultimately Lionel itself that this situation improves. They have put out many great products over the years that I really like, and I would like to be able to have trust in them again.
The ugly: The internet was once a more free space to exchange ideas. Unfortunately, thought controllers in big tech companies have took it upon themselves to micromanage the the exchange of free thought. This even applies to even our little hobby. On another big forum I have seen the moderator rudely gaslighting members, deleteting entire threads to protect corporate sponsors, and even making threats. The silver lining is some subscribers and supporting members will not tolerate this and form alternatives like this forum
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Post by stoshu on Jan 1, 2021 16:06:21 GMT
I wonder what the train shows will be like ? I feel there is a pent up demand from buyers, so will vendors raise prices ? I'm sure the first ones will be crowded as everyone just wants to get out. It could be interesting...
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Post by ptc on Jan 1, 2021 16:15:34 GMT
"I wonder what the train shows will be like ? I feel there is a pent up demand from buyers, so will vendors raise prices ?
I'm sure the first ones will be crowded as everyone just wants to get out. It could be interesting.."
Should be a relatively high interest in train shows with pent-up demand.
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Post by Charlie on Jan 1, 2021 17:38:04 GMT
The “State of Anything” is always determined on the metric you use to come to your conclusion and there is really no wrong answer.
If we use current manufactures as the metric, then yes, the hobby is shrinking.
If we use the number of active members in our local clubs and more specifically the modular group of the Mid-West Division TCA, then the hobby is growing. We have had a general decline in membership in TCA, but an increase in younger members to the modular group. To me, that sends a message that collectors are waning but operators are increasing.
Again, depends on what you use as your metric.
Lastly, for me the real thrill of O gauge is not the shear numbers of modelers, but rather the quality of modeling that is taking place. I am constantly in awe of the new modelers to O that come to the hobby from a different discipline. We seem to have not only HO modelers in my area, but also new modelers (both men and woman) who are not beholden to typical tinplate modeling ideas from the past.
Charlie
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Post by ptc on Jan 1, 2021 18:58:18 GMT
Excellent points Charlie. Public exposure to our hobby be virtue of train shows appears to be growing, BIG TIME. Can't use 2020 as a barometer, but if the vaccine gets out there fairly quickly, the fall schedule could be a blockbuster.
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Post by Charlie on Jan 1, 2021 21:25:33 GMT
Can't use 2020 as a barometer, but if the vaccine gets out there fairly quickly, the fall schedule could be a blockbuster. Hey Brian: That I agree with to the fullest extent. Regardless when the vaccine is available, I think we will see a huge rebound or pendulum swing to the extreme. So yes, the next train shows will be blockbusters. After a few shows I think people will start to work back to moderation in everything, not just train shows. Charlie
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