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Post by laz57 on Dec 28, 2020 22:31:15 GMT
State of the hobby is pretty good for me. Been getting lots of great deals on older Lionel TMCC engines and doing upgrades on them. I enjoy doing the ERR Cruise Commander M along with the super chuffer. Pretty easy to do and if one knows how to solder it is easy peasy. Cost isn’t to much either. I think the older TMCC a has great sound systems and seems to me the quality of the engines is better. I will continue to enjoy these older engines and run them. As far as the newer ones I did preorder the Lionel Army Sharks with nose art along with the R&N ten wheeler. Hope Lionel doesn’t screw them up.
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Post by david1 on Dec 29, 2020 1:18:37 GMT
My predictions for the coming year having to do with our trains is positive for me, maybe not everybody. The negative side of the hobby I believe the electronic revolution is to blame for the retraction of the newer trains because of quality control, extreme cost, lack of new tooling and the loss of MTH.
The positive of the hobby is the expansion of the secondary market.I have found many items that were once not my cup of tea but I find very attractive now. The quality, price, paint schemes and simple mechanicals and easily fixed is for me at this time in my life.
Nothing wrong with the electronic laden engines if you have the time, patients and course the money but hey we all have our favorites. Mine so happens to lean towards the simple and less costly items.
I do like scale items and build my layout to the scale side but with engines and cars from MPC era and a little later.
No matter what you like from the most modern trains to whatever era you like, the whole point is to have fun. No one way is for everyone.
Dave
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Post by Country Joe on Dec 29, 2020 5:04:32 GMT
I think the state of the hobby is a little bad and a lot good.
The bad part is that, like Vern, I think the hobby is slowly shrinking. I don't think the hobby will go the way of the dinosaur anytime soon. It will be here for years and most likely decades to come. If the hobby does shrink it will mean fewer new products, less innovation and higher prices for new products. On the other hand more and more used trains will flood the market meaning lower prices and greater availability of quality use items. If MTH ceases making new trains it would be very bad. Competition is a good thing and great for us.
The good part is that I think MTH will continue which is wonderful for me. Most of my locomotives are Railking so I'm hoping MTH continues. Lionel makes a lot of starter sets and, to the best of my knowledge they are good quality. Starter sets introduce a lot of people, both young and old, to the hobby. O Gauge trains are not the premier, must have toys they were when I was a boy, but many kids will be drawn to the hobby by Lionel starter sets.
For me personally the future of the hobby first depends on MTH. If MTH goes under I won't be getting many new locomotives. Menards has freight cars covered and I probably have enough passenger cars but I am not thrilled with Lionel.
I think there are enough O Gaugers to keep the hobby in good shape for a long time to come. That's my take but keep in mind that, while hindsight is 20/20, foresight is very myopic. 🙂
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Post by josef on Dec 29, 2020 10:25:56 GMT
I normally avoid posting replies on subjects of a shrinking hobby or in my case belonging to a group (non train related) that also believes their game is changing. In both cases, what I see is that the organization in both lack exposure to the public and we have maintained our membership through word of mouth by the members. Shrinking? No, but maintaining slow growth because of the members. As to "O" gauge, we use to have Hobby Shops in almost every small and large town. Dime stores that had trains we saw on display on shelves and drew interest in children and adults. Each year catalogs, those Christmas catalogs filled with toys and trains. But, alas, there are few Hobby Stores, Dime Stores, nor Christmas Wish books around. Our Hobby's growth is a large part growth by us passed on to our children, neighbors by our layouts and displays that many members put on. When I go to local train shows, the building is filled with not only older adults, but many middle aged and younger couples with their kids who are awed by the trains they see running. I also see many ready to run sets being purchased by first timers. Before the last Hobby Shop in my area shut down, they sold every Lionel Lone Ranger set they had which was over 2 dozen.
I know several Model Railroaders with layouts that don't belong to any Forums or clubs. A couple use E-Bay to purchase new or used items to add to or sell their excess items. They are unaware of BTO items by Lionel or have seen a catalog in years.
Personally, I have all I'll ever need to continue running my trains and layout. Have a box full of trackage and switches for future use. Extra handhelds for Legacy and DCS. My era of my layout and the railroad names I run on it are set. I am not a collector of either engines or rolling stock so my new purchases are low to non-existent. A large portion of my rolling stock are converted, re-painted and re-decaled.
What is hurting the Hobby are the manufacturers themselves, the Lionel and K Line suit, Lionel's ineptness in quality control and one size fits all in engines and rolling stock. Just slap on a color and decal to make it fit a railroad. Unless there is a buyer for MTH, there will be a problem with parts for repairs of engines or rolling stock aside from the electronics. This will also hurt the few existing Hobby Shops since in O gauge, Lionel is their only supplier and very few are going to risk any BTO items unless pre-ordered. Quality control by Lionel is also hurting the growth, first time buyers whose first purchase dies after a few runs around under the Christmas tree. The lack of more technicians and parts to fix electronics and training by the manufacturers and damages caused by shipments back and forth.
I'll get off my soap box now, but for myself, I have a layout I will change, maybe many times over. I have the trackage and rolling stock that will hold my interest for many years to come. Its my get-a-way from these troubled time.
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Post by ptc on Dec 29, 2020 13:29:22 GMT
We started our list of improvements for the layout in 2021 yesterday and all items include the use of O-Gauge vendor products. As I said before, what a wonderful time it is to have a hobby like ours.
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Post by chipset35 on Dec 29, 2020 14:00:48 GMT
"Mike Wolf never released a LIRR C-420 high nose in World Fair colors.
He should not retire until he does so.
I was forced to overpay for a Lionel non-powered one, and have a shell waiting for a motor and chassis...
All out of desperation lol!
Mike please before you leave!"Not going to happen, Vince.  I know, its like trying to find "The Yeti".
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Post by Yellowstone Special on Dec 29, 2020 14:10:42 GMT
Interesting perspective, Walter. But may I make a friendly suggestion? Notice Country Joe’s response above yours? In a rather lengthy post, try using the next larger font (maybe 14 point) along with paragraphs. Makes it much easier to read. Thanks. 😉
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Post by dennym57 on Dec 29, 2020 14:54:18 GMT
I will run trains until I no longer can. As far as the hobby shrinking, I would imagine they had this same conversation back in the prewar and postwar days and yet here we are. It will be alive as long as we are after that it's up to the next generation.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2020 15:21:57 GMT
I know all of you remember the trains listed in the Sears Christmas catalog. I remember seeing sets out for display when my grandmother worked for Sears. The hobby shops in my area carried trains at one time. Some are gone now and some have converted to mostly RC hobby. We still have Brasseur's but that is it for miles for me.
It seems to me Lionel and the other manufactures should be advertising like Bomba's socks or some of these other items that you see everywhere. When was the last time you watched something on YouTube that didn't cut to an ad? If Lionel put in an ad of a ready to run set on YouTube or similar media outlet some youthful person might just request it next Christmas.
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Post by ptc on Dec 29, 2020 15:58:30 GMT
Weather-Tech capitalized this Christmas season with their store window display ad featuring a train set running around their product offerings. Even had a Noma Train Station in this display. It was a terrific ad and their advertising people had a home-run with this one. Something to be learned here.
Trains sell product.
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Post by rockymountaineer on Dec 29, 2020 17:47:32 GMT
Sometimes it's tough to get a truly accurate read on the hobby, given our relatively limited exposure to the behind-the-scenes machinations going on -- especially since we were basically "isolated" in 2020. Nonetheless, I think we can still draw a few general conclusions.
From a monetary perspective, there seems to be no shortage of clients lining up at TW Trainworx to have custom layouts built. With Dunham Studios largely in transition to retirement after building custom layouts since the mid-1980's, TW Trainworx now garners most of this business. And where Dunham Studios tended to churn out 1-2 large layouts per year, TW Trainworx sometimes delivers 3-4 per QUARTER, when they're operating at peak level. Although this is still a "niche" element of the hobby, it's still an indicator of disposable income that a segment of the hobby's enthusiasts are prepared to part with. I was blessed and fortunate enough to be one of Dunham Studios last clients, and I don't regret the decision one bit.
As for MTH... I don't know what to say, because I have zero inside knowledge to offer. My gut feel tells me MTH will not exist after the company delivers its last production run. Mike had a tremendous ride, and gave the hobby a level of competition that would never have existed if Lionel were the only game in town. But I don't see anyone taking the risk to buy MTH, given the volatility of the Chinese factory landscape these days. At this point, I'm picking up selective pieces of MTH rolling stock if something calls my name. But it's REALLY tough for me to pull the trigger on MTH locomotives these days. My layout uses MTH ScaleTrax and is wired for DCS, but I also have Legacy. So I feel buffered from having all my eggs in one basket. I have extra ScaleTrax turnouts, if I need to replace one that might go faulty over time. But I have no plans to "expand" the layout per se, where I'd suddenly be in the market to search for additional ScaleTrax products.
Bottom line.... I'm at a point with toy trains and a very nice layout, that if our hobby stopped producing new train products tomorrow, I'd be more than content with what I own now. While it would be nice to see MTH continue in some way, shape or form... I'm also enough of a realist that I -- along with the hobby as a whole -- would continue on, adjusting without them... as strange as it might seem initially.
As for Lionel, I think they're producing WAY too much product in any given year -- without any semblance of quality AND production control whatsoever. The disconnect between what gets catalog'd and what ultimately shows up in the States at delivery time is often disappointing. Although that's not intended to be as bleak as it sounds. Nonetheless, that has changed by buying habits considerably. It actually felt great this year to watch product arrive whenever it did, and THEN making purchase decisions... rather than eagerly awaiting BTO pre-orders that repeatedly missed their delivery estimates. This might be the first year that I can remember, where a Lionel VisionLine product did NOT make its December delivery -- and it was the same year that Lionel catalog'd WAY too many VL locomotives in the first place. True... I'm sure the pandemic threw every industry into turmoil. But had Lionel announced ONE VisionLine locomotive instead of 20, they might have been able to better manage and prioritize delivery of its flagship product.
On a somewhat related note... the Lionel flatcars with 20' trailers that I received recently were shipped in one of their original shipping cartons with an OBS date of 8/24/2020. And I received them on 12/24 -- exactly FOUR months.... where in the past, two months was more typical. Just an observation that tells a story of what happened in 2020.
From a social media standpoint, OGF has been a stellar success -- exceeding EVERYONE's expectations, including members, casual observers and even the competition (who probably hasn't even realized what's hit them yet). OGF has been a real game-changer -- and has succeeded in offering its members the friendliest model train online forum experience bar none. And we've proven we don't need -- nor did we ever appreciate -- a heavy-handed moderation style that arrogantly felt the need to censor, edit or control content. In the end, professionalism ALWAYS wins.
By and large, I sense we're all eager to visit a train show IN PERSON again to see what calls our name, and to check out the hobby's landscape with our own eyes. 2020 has been a long and strange year -- something none of us could have ever predicted. But life will move onward one way or another, because that's what we do. And the hobby will do likewise. We've come a LONG way from Lionel's 1969 "catalog" that was a mere 8-page pamphlet, when the company was on the brink of literally producing no more trains and dying. In fact, we're not even close.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2020 18:30:17 GMT
Amen, to that. No where near 1969. In fact, my plans were not to go to York anytime soon. I might change that for 2021 Oct. Could be the show of the ages.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2020 18:41:50 GMT
Growing up, a number of my friends had toy trains, most Lionel or American Flyer. Today only a few locally are interested in them. All of my kids and grandchildren have trains, none are set up.
I offered a train set to the 13 children of any of my eight nieces and nephews. No takers, few questions.
My grandkids enjoy running trains here. Their friends don’t have trains.
I see crowds at train shows and quite a few are making purchases. But I have a hard time believing that Lionel starter sets are quality products that last.
We have only attended York for 4-5 years. In that time, attendance has declined pretty significantly. There is empty space in the Orange Hall and a number of major dealers only attend once a year.
O gauge trains are a declining hobby.
Hobby shops have been decimated as older folks retire or close their doors. The Internet is a big positive and allows many of us access to the hobby and excellent information. Forums such as this one are a major plus; friendships across the country have been made and have replaced much of the need for local friends in the hobby. Buying trains in Indiana, New Jersey, Massachusetts, etc is easy. But we do not spend much locally.
I am concerned about MTH. It is no secret that Mike did not feel that the hobby could support new tooling. The degree that pending retirement affected that decision may be significant. Losing the second largest player and really the only other major one would, if not replaced, be a blow to competition in the industry. I do not see a replacement on the horizon unless Menards decides to step up their game. Hopefully the rumored sale will go thru and MTH will continue in some format.
The number of suppliers appears to be in good shape. Barriers to entry are not significant and there are some excellent people to work with. There is a broad range of quality products.
Personally we are in excellent shape and have far more than we need. Most of us are in a similar position. We are having a good time and enjoying the hobby. After owning a 41’ sport fish, trains, while not inexpensive, are not a hole in the water that eats thousand dollar bills at a rapid rate. If we need to reduce spending, we can do so and still enjoy the hobby.
What happens to all of our expensive trains? If the kids want them, great. If not, plenty of people make a good living holding auctions, selling all kinds of trains and other important stuff, and can sell ours, albeit at a rather large decrease in what was paid. Someone will get some really good deals.
Sum total... a gradually declining hobby. But at our age, not a tremendous problem. So enjoy it.
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Post by Yellowstone Special on Dec 29, 2020 20:51:45 GMT
A good synopsis and very well-stated, Bill.
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Post by twincities on Dec 30, 2020 12:10:19 GMT
my thoughts are we seeing a repeat of the toy train market dwindling as it did when american flyer and others and lionel itself shrunk late 1959 forward? if you think about it trains and new manufactures have slowly exited for various reasons so are we experiencing the same trend now? and yet during the lean years we all managed to keep running trains we had and enjoyed them just as we are now. I enjoy running not only the only modern day feature packed trains that at one time were only in our imaginary world but the conventional trains some of us grew up with.
in 100 years from now will our once prized feature packed trains be replaced with virtual reality where our trains can have the largest curves available due to no space limitations? will the people of that era think our trains are obsolete we will never know as most all of us will be dust by then.
until my day of departing I'll enjoy what I have and run them until they are no longer able to with the current pc boards etc that made this hobby step up to the next level.
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