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Post by rockymountaineer on Mar 15, 2024 4:13:45 GMT
So we've talked about this topic somewhat in prior threads. But all I could do was shake my head in disbelief this week with so many high-priced custom-runs either being delivered or announced.
Cases in point: Stockyard Express delivered their MTH Premier Challenger in U.S. Army livery. Boom!!! Sold out within a week.
The Train Loft is delivering their MTH Premier Challenger in red/burgundy stripe KATY livery. Premium-priced at $2,000. Sales moving along at a brisk pace.
Check out this YouTube video from Brady's Train Outlet that just dropped yesterday. They're practically ALL high-priced, beautifully designed offerings that ANY collector would love to have as part of their collection. The problem is you'd go broke if you wanted them all. $2,300 Triplex. $1,800 H-7. $2,200 Blue Comet 4-6-0 w/woodside passenger cars. $475 UP Aux Tender. $155 UP TOFC. $115 Milk Car. WHOA!!!! The last time I bought milk cars, I think they were $55 tops.
In addition, METCA's webstore now has some new custom-run freight car offerings that are mostly aligned with Lionel's 2024 Big Book catalog. Check 'em out here... just scroll to the bottom for the newest offerings. The prices aren't exactly for the faint-of-heart, because they parallel Lionel MSRP for the most part. But there are some cool offerings nonetheless. Like every other dealer however, you're gonna need to resign yourself to the fact that we need to VERY selective about what you want. The days of pre-ordering anything you want on a whim are gone forever.
Lastly... let's not forget the websites of Stockyard Express, The Train Loft and Mr. Muffin's Trains for more goodies too. Their websites also list some recently announced custom-runs... mostly from MTH. So the prices are a bit easier to swallow. But you can still run up a big bill, if you're not careful.
Honestly, I don't know who's smoking what when they set these prices. But many of these offerings are clearly selling... and selling well. Some of these are being marketed like exotic Ferrari's, and they're actually selling out completely. AND NONE OF THESE CUSTOM-RUNS ARE IN BARGAIN BASEMENT TERRITORY. NOT ONE!
You want bargains? Then don't look at ANY of the links I've posted. Shop at train shows instead... and definitely stay clear of eBay. But if you want some cool new designs, then browse these links at your own risk. You've been warned. OTOH, at least now you can browse nearly ALL the custom-runs that are gonna be available this year. So you can weigh one vs. another... instead of plunking down deposits willy-nilly all over the place... and then ka-ching!!! Later in the year it's time to pay the piper $10K-$15K without realizing it. 
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Post by seayakbill on Mar 15, 2024 9:18:55 GMT
Pats Trains seems to be the King for Santa Fe Black Bonnet releases. Numerous offerings in the big buck range over the past couple years. There certainly must be a customer base for these fantasy locomotives, both in diesel and steam variations. The only exclusive locomotives that I have purchased so far was the Morton Salt NW type switcher from Stockyard Express and the Northern Pacific Heritage diesel. I figure Morton Salt may actually have had a switcher or two at their processing facilities. The NP Heritage is strictly a fantasy loco but I really liked the paint scheme that Lionel came up with. The dealer exclusives seem to sell well and there must be plenty of folks willing to pull out their credit cards for these locomotives.  Bill |
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Post by superwarp1 on Mar 15, 2024 12:06:45 GMT
Time will tell. They are selling so that kind of answers your question. Now when the novelty wears off, what will these special runs command on the secondary market?? That's my question.
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Post by nycgeorge on Mar 15, 2024 12:56:37 GMT
Could also be that many of these custom runs are limited amounts. A run of 40 engines, 100 freight cars etc. So they are not flooding the market as in the "old " days. A local hobby shop announced a special custom run of a MTH switcher (20 of each road number) soldout in a week.
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Post by rockymountaineer on Mar 15, 2024 13:07:47 GMT
Pats Trains seems to be the King for Santa Fe Black Bonnet releases. Numerous offerings in the big buck range over the past couple years. There certainly must be a customer base for these fantasy locomotives, both in diesel and steam variations. … My bad!!! How could I forget Pat’s offerings? I guess I was getting close to my bedtime when I posted this thread last night. Long day!!! LOL!!! I have a couple of Pat’s Black Bonnet offerings, and I’m tempted by his recent blue C&O H-7 custom run. But I’m also getting tired of looking at $1,800+ price tags every time you look. Brady also now has an H-7 custom-run too. It’s just crazy!!! As far as resale value goes, it’s still too early to tell. But I think locomotives will do well. Some rolling stock will hold their own for awhile — especially with the eBay shysters constantly pushing the envelope. Other rolling stock, however, will be tough to even give away at train shows. We shall see. |
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Post by Sir James on Mar 15, 2024 13:37:49 GMT
Well with no catalog, MTH can do custom runs without having to worry about selling them. It seems that lately a huge number of runs are being offered. At some point the buyers with wheelbarrows of money are gonna say, I can't buy anymore.
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Post by rtraincollector on Mar 15, 2024 13:46:55 GMT
To be honest, I myself wonder who buys these high price items? I normally won't even look at a custom run item, I know they are way more than I'm willing to pay. $2300 for a triplex? I can buy 2-3 good standard gauge engines for that type of money. ( two 400E's and a 385E or 1935E )
I also wonder what type of return can they get a year or so down the road. ( or should I say how much of a lost ) by the way I sometimes wonder with what I buy also, but percentage wise I bet mine will hold value better. ( reason for thinking as stated above, finding someone who is after that particular type engine)
You also have to find someone that there layout can run those big engines.
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Post by runamuckchuck on Mar 15, 2024 13:53:38 GMT
Don't get me wrong, I enjoy custom runs whether prototypical lesser known roads or scare variations as well as the whimsical. IMO some of these custom runs are eye candy which may ultimately lose their gleam in the eye effect over a relatively short period of time.
Then there is the next best thing syndrome where yesterdays hot number is tomorrows auction item and not for necessarily a good reason.
Lionel must believe that the whimsical can be integrated to some degree with the prototypical looking at the text accompanying their scale Acme Loony Toons cars in the last catalog. Which may after all be the objective to put a little wow factor and shake things up a little bi.
Good for them, as you won't know if you don't try.
But as for cost, unless you are still working, were diligent in socking money away in your IRA or 401 K, got a nice inheritance, won the Lottery, or can tap into your trust fund, there has to be a limit. But then again is there?
My suggestion is get your concessions, take a seat on the 50 yard line and enjoy the custom run entertainment.
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Post by rockymountaineer on Mar 15, 2024 14:28:05 GMT
Could also be that many of these custom runs are limited amounts. A run of 40 engines, 100 freight cars etc. … Exactly… I believe those are minimums for Lionel. MTH is a bit more forgiving. I know that Clyde from Stockyard Express made 23 MTH Premier Challengers in the U.S. Army livery. Meanwhile, Pat’s Trains and The Train Loft made custom-run MTH Shays in the teens, if I’m not mistaken. So some of these are truly rare pieces in that regard. |
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Post by dlagrua on Mar 15, 2024 15:38:00 GMT
From my perspective, it looks like the modern day O gauge collector is a small group of affluent people supporting the hobby. Those folks also must have a layout with minimum 072 curves to run that equipment. While I can easily afford them, spending several thousand dollars on a new Chicom engine represents a waste of money. When guests come over to see my layout run, the presentation is great using MPC, Lionel LLc and 90's equipment. My money is spent on Antiques, collector vehicles, our personal cars, tractors firearms and lavish vacations.
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Post by steveoncattailcreek on Mar 15, 2024 16:15:33 GMT
Well, the marketplace tends to be self-regulating, to the extent that an over-supply of custom runs will result in a lack of sufficient sales, followed by losses liquidating surplus stock, followed by cutting back future plans. Sure, plenty of pain to distribute in such a system, and if it gets dysfunctional enough some players will diminish in size or go out of business, but that's the price you pay for what we somewhat misleadingly call "free market capitalism", which with all its obvious flaws is IMHO still the best and most efficient option yet developed.
None of which is to say we all aren't free to carp about those flaws, or make our best suggestions about what *should* be done. Unless you're that anonymous shot-caller at Menards or are independently wealthy, however, all the carping in the world won't do much unless/until you wield the capital or control to actually put your (or your investors') money down and see if the market agrees with you!
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Post by Traindiesel! on Mar 15, 2024 16:53:23 GMT
The train shops and the importers are laughing at suggestions and questions about who or how anyone is buying the custom run trains. All the way to the bank.
There are a lot of model train enthusiasts from all walks of life and with lots of ways they enjoy the hobby that do not or don’t care to participate in train forums. We can’t judge just by the comments from a few dozen people on Internet forums that can’t believe they all don’t think like we do.
The bottom line is if the custom runs weren’t profitable for all those involved they wouldn’t be making them.
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Post by rockymountaineer on Mar 15, 2024 17:55:53 GMT
...
There are a lot of model train enthusiasts from all walks of life and with lots of ways they enjoy the hobby that do not or don’t care to participate in train forums. We can’t judge just by the comments from a few dozen people on Internet forums that can’t believe they all don’t think like we do.
The bottom line is if the custom runs weren’t profitable for all those involved they wouldn’t be making them.
Brian, I'm more than happy to participate in some of these custom-runs as the mood strikes me. And I have purchased some recently. Where I've changed my approach, however, is the outlandish pricing has forced me -- as with many of us -- to become HIGHLY selective.
For me, pre-orders that EASILY numbered in the dozens only several years ago are now just a small handful. And that's fine, because I could be happy with what my current roster -- even if no more new trains were produced. In some cases, I have some road-names that I'd liked to further add to at times. But I just can't get past the prices. Of course, you'll never here the YouTube generation say that. But that's my story... and I'm sticking to it.
The biggest example of that is Lionel's AC&W offerings. I sprung for their passenger offerings in recent years, because the color-scheme is so unique and attractive. I have the initial F9 locomotives and all of the separately announced passenger cars -- opting to pass on the recent E8's. So I would have liked to expand my roster to include the new AC&W freight offerings which began with some items from the LCCA. Unfortunately, the LCCA opted to limit their offerings to cars that were largely only available at a recent annual convention. The only one that's still available -- and (clearing my throat) "reasonably" priced -- is the $90 unibody tank car. Three other boxcars have fallen into the hands of shysters, who now want insane prices -- hyping the fact that only 75 or so were made of each one. They can keep 'em for all I care.
METCA just recently posted a nice color-matched AC&W milk car on their website. But at $119.99 (Lionel's MSRP for milk cars in the latest catalog), I'll pass thank you very much. Seriously... aside from Lionel's own internal cost that METCA must pass on to its enthusiasts, what makes Milk Cars carry a $30 premium over the still-available $90 unibody tank car from LCCA. No thank you. Not happening. I'll stick with passenger service for AC&W on my model railroad.
Look... these suppliers could not find a more enthusiastic O-Gauge / O-Scale hobbyist than yours truly. I've even enjoyed thinning out my collection to make room for some new acquisitions, and I'm thankful there's a secondary market for trains that have been well-kept in excellent to like-new conditions. Heck... some ARE still "brand new", aside from being displayed in the train room. But that doesn't directly translate into a green light to spend $120 for a Milk Car or $150 for a Bobber Caboose like a drunken sailor -- both of which I last spent around $55 for their earlier versions. Sigh.... 
You are indeed correct though, Brian. There's an entirely new breed of enthusiasts who don't necessarily think like we do here on the forums. Their need to be upbeat to no end on YouTube videos in an attempt to garner subscribers and clicks flies in the face of being objective, since they have little to no experience in buying trains 15-20 years ago. That's where we come in. But we largely represent a vocal minority that is far from the likes of today's YouTube "influencer culture". Then again, I'm sure there's also another segment of the market who is more than happy to just live vicariously through YouTube videos without spending a nickel. And that's OK too., because tere are definitely MANY ways to enjoy this hobby nowadays. That is for certain.
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Post by Traindiesel! on Mar 15, 2024 21:24:43 GMT
You’re so right, David. Since we don’t know what’s coming down the pipeline, being selective is all we can do.
There are a half dozen items just on the METCA website store that I’d love to get but I can’t get past the $100 box cars! It seems the custom rolling stock are going for that price so it’s gotta be something that really gets my attention to buy it. Most of the custom announcements haven’t interested me.
What I do is look at the announcements in groups during a certain time frame and pick my favorites from those that I might buy. I’ve bought a few after they were delivered from unsold stock. You just have to take chances sometimes.
The Lionel custom locomotives aren’t what interests me, mostly because I have more than my share of engines and they are priced in the stratosphere and beyond what I consider their value to be. That’s not saying I don’t like or want them, they’re just not stirring my chocolate. There are a few locomotives in my pipeline from other importers I want to get that are prioritized far ahead of the fantasy offerings.
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Post by rockymountaineer on Mar 15, 2024 21:46:25 GMT
...
There are a half dozen items just on the METCA website store that I’d love to get but I can’t get past the $100 box cars! ...
At this past Allentown ATMA show in February, METCA had a booth where they previewed production samples of the two Holiday season 6464 boxcars due later in 2024: the Christmas boxcar and the Halloween boxcar. The Christmas boxcar coordinates BEAUTIFULLY with the paint scheme on METCA's A-5 locomotive. So I was excited and all in... RIGHT UP UNTIL I SAW THE $100 PRICE TAG. For a 6464 boxcar no less. I would have bought 6 of them to make a nice unit train behind the A-5. But no way at $100/each. Maybe $40-$50/each. But $100? NFW. That's just not win/win in my book. So I'll move right along with Plan B, which will be to build a freight train with existing Christmas rolling stock already on my roster. Easy solution.
Sometimes I wonder if the dealers / clubs care that they're losing business to some of us "old-timers" because of this pricing. But I guess they feel there's 6 young enthusiasts who'll pay $100 each, which will replace my walking away from the sale completely, because I won't pay $600. And if that's the case, more power to them.
Look... I know many of these dealers and club coordinators personally, and I cordially talk to them multiple times each year at train shows or over the phone: Clyde at Stockyard Express, Steve at Mr. Muffin's Trains, Pat at Pat's Trains, Jeff at The Train Loft, Sal at LCCA, and Stu at METCA. They're all good guys... and I always wish them well. I still buy from them all... just a LOT LESS THAN I WOULD IF PRICES WERE REASONABLE.
There will be no change in these nosebleed prices, until all the guys who make up for the lost business from us old-timers also stop buying. And for now, that doesn't seem to be happening. So we are our own worst enemy in that regard.
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