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Post by chipset35 on Nov 5, 2023 14:18:31 GMT
I went to his site for the first time in a long time, same with train world.
All I saw was $1200+, $1200+, $1200+, $1200+...
Was glad I did not need or want anything.
What I have is what I have.
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Post by rockymountaineer on Nov 5, 2023 15:19:41 GMT
I went to his site for the first time in a long time, same with train world. ...
Lionel cataloged and has now delivered all of the passenger cars for its Aberdeen, Carolina & Western train. It’s a random mishmash of different cars — some 18” and some 21”. The paint scheme is quite unique — a purple color with a metallic specked finish similar to some of the premium paint options on luxury automobiles. It’s definitely not your everyday train “look”.
Word on the street is the final 2-pack of 18” heavyweight coaches have arrived at dealers last week. But nearly every dealer website says they’re “sold out”. The one exception I found is Trainworld, and their website shows 5 sets remaining in inventory as of this post. The catch is their price is $599.99 — roughly $100 OVER Lionel’s MSRP!!!
Now this 2-pk isn’t a secondary market item being sold by typical eBay shysters coming out of the woodwork. Trainworld is a reputable dealer. I just hate to see ANY dealer play market games like this on a current-run item. A dealer in central NJ back in the 1980’s-1990’s often ran his business like this — increasing his prices anytime he sensed a product shortage in the market, or if Lionel shorted him on a shipment. I hated that practice back then… and I still do.
Apparently these coaches arrived in North Carolina some time ago in 2022, and Lionel reportedly returned them back to China to get the color correct and to match other items in the AC&W passenger train… which recent early photos/videos on YouTube appear to show they finally did.
So that’s the backstory on these gems, and it might explain why dealers are sold out already — simply from pre-orders. According to UPS, mine are on a truck and should arrive here on Monday from Charles Ro, where I pre-ordered them when the train was first illustrated in Lionel’s 2022 Catalog. Ro’s pre-order price at the time was less than half of Trainworld’s current $600 “market price”.
Bottom line… it’s tough enough when prices in the catalog are expensive. But it’s really bad when Lionel authorized dealers are squeezing every bit of profit they can out of products coming directly from Lionel — all at the expense of enthusiasts who live this hobby. Just calling as I see it.
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Post by dlagrua on Nov 5, 2023 15:20:31 GMT
IMO, Lionel, MTH and Atlas are surviving by serving a very small segment of the population. The demographics of those that buy the trains are not favorable to a long term strategy of selling $1000-$3000 hobby items but the secondary market is there and perhaps growing. It offers opportunity for the middle class hobbyist as does Menards.
While high end items are within my means; they are not necessary for a layout built just as a scenic presentation. I just turn on the ZW's and let the trains run. For expensive items my hobbies include travel, firearms, antiques and classic cars; most things that hold their value.
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Post by healey36 on Nov 5, 2023 16:24:02 GMT
"The demographics of those that buy the trains are not favorable..."I would absolutely agree with that, although many in the hobby disagree. There's still a huge chunk of the O-gauge hobby that's nostalgia-based, and once the Boomers move on, I suspect the rate of shrinkage will accelerate. All of the young people that I know involved in O-gauge are there for the command-control aspects. They don't buy a lot of trains, they don't build a big layout, most don't build kits or paint stuff. They will, however, tinker with the electronics, and they can do amazing things with their Iphones 
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Post by david1 on Nov 6, 2023 4:31:52 GMT
I'm not at that opinion that the hobby is going away. When I got into the hobby in 1970 people kept telling me the hobby would not last another 5 years. In 1985 all the experts said the same thing, in 2000 when the mfgs were moving overseas I heard the same thing, the hobby is dying. And since 2000 I have heard the same thing time and time again.
Listen again, THE HOBBY IS NOT DYING,ITS CHANGING!!! MAYBE NOT FOR THE BETTER but I believe it will be around for many more years.
A couple of weeks ago I was at York and I have never seen so many younger members and they were spending money. When I started going to York in 1984 and have never missed one since. I think the hobby is in good hands, I have done my part all those years ago and now its in other peoples hands.
Is the hobby expensive, yes but it was expensive since Lionel started producing trains in the early 1900's.it was expensive in the 50's, it was expensive in the 70's and it's expensive today.
There are many other things in this world to worry about and our hobby not surviving sure in the heck is not one.
Dave
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Post by curtis on Nov 6, 2023 13:04:14 GMT
AGREE 100% David. That was a question in my polls about younger people. I saw a lot more this year than any other. Not only are they spending money but THEY ARE PROMOTING THE HOBBY! Now I may not like watching a box being opened (although I am interested in the knives used on one YouTube) I enjoy their videos. Especially when they point out flaws and color problems. That is the NUMBER ONE reason why I watch. This hobby is NOT dying. I believe it is growing but not in the same old way it did. Look at all the electronics today. (Even if they are failing). Look at all the features being brought forward. IF THEY DID NOT SELL THEY WOULD NOT NE GOING THAT ROUTE! Just my thoughts. ( I just can't afford them )
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Post by rockymountaineer on Nov 6, 2023 16:15:38 GMT
Just to be clear... when I started this thread, I was in no way saying the hobby is doomed. Quite the contrary, I've never been a believer that the hobby is "dying" per se. However, it's interesting to make market observations and the changes that are taking place along the way.
Now when we talk about market demographics, I think those of us in the hobby for decades need to be careful NOT to project our own tendencies and biases on the upcoming generation of enthusiasts. Because guess what? They're not looking to us for our thoughts and guidance. They're diving in hook, line and sinker... spending dollars like there's no tomorrow. Or so we would conclude, IF WHAT WE SEE ON YOUTUBE REPRESENTS REALITY.
I'm not saying this trend is good or bad. Just that it exists. And it's different from a decade or two ago. Have you seen some of the buyers featured in these "first look" videos of uber-expensive items? 4 out of 5 of them -- perhaps even more -- are youngsters either at the store where they've made a major purchase... or they're posting a video within minutes of getting home to unbox their latest purchase. IT'S IMPORTANT FOR THEM TO HAVE THIS VISIBILITY ON SOCIAL MEDIA. It's in their DNA.
Now that's not to say us old-timers didn't promote the hobby. We just did it differently. Take for example some of the principals in the NJ Highrailers Club. These guys are first-class hobby enthusiasts... opening their club to visitors for a variety of open houses, where enthusiasts can see trains running IN PERSON -- all in one heck of a fabulous setting. When you visit, you're bound to see some of the latest products making an appearance on their amazing layout. But generally speaking, you don't see them posting videos of their new acquisitions the very day these new gems arrived at their doorstep. So they promote the hobby in a different way. Does that makes sense?
By and large, I believe when it comes to "affordability"... we have two segments in this hobby: [1] Those who have a high level of disposable income from savings (after decades of hard work), and [2] those younger enthusiasts in the modern-day workforce who are spending every dollar they earn. Both segments are equally enthusiastic. Beyond this, there's a third segment in our hobby who chooses not to buy the latest and greatest: either because they don't have the disposable income; OR if they do, they choose to spend their dollars elsewhere. This segment is gaining lots of traction in the secondary market as long as they ignore the growing number of eBay shysters that are following Lionel's game of pricing stuff into the stratosphere. OTOH, if you're a seller in the secondary market today AND you price your trains fairly and keep them in like-new condition, you're market is well-defined.
Bottom line... there seems to be NOTHING slowing down Lionel's -- and to some degree MTH and Atlas RR's -- marketing department. The prices continue to head toward the stratosphere, and I don't see that changing -- regardless of the fact that there are fewer enthusiasts who are pre-ordering ENORMOUS lists of products when catalogs and product announcements are released. The days of ordering TONS of stuff from every catalog are over -- from a practical standpoint, regardless of your market segment. However, there is still a significant number of enthusiasts placing SOME big-ticket pre-orders each year... and the YouTubers give the impression that everyone is doing it... somewhat of a "keeping up with the Jones's mentality". And I don't see that changing anytime soon.
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Post by david1 on Nov 6, 2023 21:34:26 GMT
There has always been high end buyers and that's ok. When I first started there was Pre war and post war and MPC. In 1970 I could not afford post war for the most part yes a car here and there but for Me MPC was it. It was more price friendly for me. I had alot of fun up until TMCC was produced, that's what I wanted. In mid 1995 I bought my first tmcc locos along with proto2. I was hooked and my thoughts of buying PW was left behind.
I bought some tmcc locos early on from about 1996 till 2007 till legacy came out. I still have most of my favorite TMCC engines. Dash9, S1 electric, GP9, ETC. They still run great and the sound is wonderful for the time. I also have some Legacy which by far has the best sound. The early built TMCC and legacy engines in my opinion have the best build quality.
Now that it is 2023 and just like 1970 when I could not afford the PW I wanted and now in 2023 I can't afford the high end today, but that's ok. Anytime I get the itch for another train I look at the secondary market. There are tons of trains on the secondary market but you gotta look.
There is one set I'm looking at and if can get a deal I will buy it. If not ill keep looking. It was a great set back in the early 2000's. Lionel has made it with Legacy but I just can't afford it.
As I have said before the hobby is not dying and there are lot of things out of my price range and not just trains. For instance there is a complete skeleton of a T Rex for sale at the auction in Europe, the skeleton is from the USA. The price that has been offered so far is $25,000,000 million. I WANT IT but at $25M plus, I can't afford it.
Remember guys and gals the train hobby has brought me and others alot of joy and if all you get out of it Is complaining about prices (of which I'm guilty) or what ever try taking up another hobby and you will find its not much different.
Dave
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Post by Traindiesel! on Nov 6, 2023 23:05:38 GMT
I believe the current perceived buying frenzy, compared to the previous 25 years or so, is artificial.
Because of the high prices the number of buyers are fewer than before. And that’s because the high priced items are being produced in much smaller quantities. Thus causing the higher prices.
“BTO!! BUILT TO ORDER!! BUY NOW OR YOU’LL NEVER SEE THESE ITEMS AGAIN IN YOUR LIFETIME!!”
A classic sales tactic to produce enthusiasm, promotion and scarcity. Once hooked buyers won’t care how much it costs. “ I need to get it now or I won’t be able to!!”
(Admittedly I’ve been pulled into the whirlpool once or twice)
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Post by dlagrua on Nov 7, 2023 14:44:38 GMT
All good points made here and I agree with most of them. If we go back to the days when I was a young boy in NYC almost all of my friends owned Lionel trains. They were surely expensive, the neighborhood was far from affluent, but most families could afford to buy a set of trains with a few operating cars. The hobby continues today more specialized with many of the same guys now adults that are buying the trains. If we remove the boomers and the middle aged guys, its a smaller market in quantity but perhaps larger in revenue. I would never say the hobby is dying but the consumer base is definitely smaller and will most likely continue this way for a while. Right now it looks like the hobby is way smaller but strong, being supported by older people with residual income. Look at the York numbers, once 13,000 and now 7,000. What does that say?
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Post by david1 on Nov 7, 2023 18:52:48 GMT
All good points made here and I agree with most of them. If we go back to the days when I was a young boy in NYC almost all of my friends owned Lionel trains. They were surely expensive, the neighborhood was far from affluent, but most families could afford to buy a set of trains with a few operating cars. The hobby continues today more specialized with many of the same guys now adults that are buying the trains. If we remove the boomers and the middle aged guys, its a smaller market in quantity but perhaps larger in revenue. I would never say the hobby is dying but the consumer base is definitely smaller and will most likely continue this way for a while. Right now it looks like the hobby is way smaller but strong, being supported by older people with residual income. Look at the York numbers, once 13,000 and now 7,000. What does that say? You make alot of great points and I agree on most but the attendance at York that was once 13000+ and now around 7,000+ is Not a indicator of how strong the hobby may be. With the amount of ways to buy trains like auctions, online, ebay, and the internet and local shows, going to York is not what it used to be. Its still a great show. Its different and its changing and the TCA has to keep up with that. A few guys I know who are car guys/collectors have told me that the hobby has really slowed down at least in this area. We used to have during the summer months quite a few car shows but the past couple of years its getting fewer and fewer. I think all hobbies are going thru the same thing. Dave
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Post by runamuckchuck on Nov 7, 2023 19:40:29 GMT
IMO the lower attendance at York is more indicative of a TCA problem that a train hobby problem. Just about everything runs in cycles although men's cuffed trousers may be the exception. TCA will either figure it out or they won't it is that simple.
But back to the thread topic, if the reports of defective or disappointing manufacturing from Lionel continues, I for one will be exiting the preorder BTO model for these high end steam engines.
While I prefer the greater realism of detailed Legacy models, some of these VL features such as wheel slippage are just a problem waiting to happen and totally unnecessary for my needs.
Is it neat, sure until it no longer or never works.
So short answer is that with every time of year could get a lot less costly unless Lionel focuses more on proper performance and less on showy effects.
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